Seeking sustainable growth: Short-term optimism, medium-term challenges

Seeking sustainable growth: Short-term optimism, medium-term challenges

Wednesday, 15 November 2017 - 5:00pm
Venue: 
Seminar Room, European Studies Centre, 70 Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 6HR
Speaker(s): 
Oya Celasun (IMF)
Chair: 
Charles Enoch (St Antony’s College, Oxford)
Convenor: 
Charles Enoch (St Antony’s College, Oxford)
Series: 
Political Economy of Financial Markets (PEFM)

After hitting a post global-financial-crisis low of 3.2 percent in 2016, world output growth is projected to reach 3.6 percent in 2017 and pick up further over the next few years. The upswing is the broadest-based since the 2010, with more than 60 percent of countries experiencing higher growth than last year. The pickup reflects stronger domestic demand in advanced economies, China, and a few other large emerging market economies that had been in recession in the last couple of years, and is marked by a upswing in global investment and trade. However, the global economic recovery is not yet complete: inflation remains puzzlingly subdued and below target in many advanced economies, and performance and prospects for many developing economies-especially fuel exporters-remains low. The October 2017 World Economic Outlook discusses how the global cyclical upturn after disappointing growth over the past few years provides an ideal window of opportunity to undertake critical reforms, thereby staving off downside risks and raising potential output and standards of living. It also zooms into two special topics: the sources of weak wage dynamics in advanced economies and the uneven economic impact of climate shocks on economies across the world.

Oya Celasun is Chief of the World Economic Studies Division of the IMF’s Research Departmentand supervises the team that prepares the World Economic Outlook report. Previously she was the IMF’s Mission Chief to Uruguay and worked as an Economist and Deputy Chief on the United States and Canada desks. She was published numerous academic and policy papers on issues related to public debt sustainability, sovereign risk and corporate debt, inflation in emerging market economies, and the costs of unpredictable aid flows in low-income countries.