Abtract: The newer EU states have managed an impressive pace of real convergence, significantly outpacing the EM average. Integration into European manufacturing chains have been central to this. Newer EU states have also successfully leveraged EU funds to boost potential growth. But economic integration increasingly contrasts with political divergence. Some of the newer EU states seek greater autonomy over policy but more importantly some of the newer member states are pushing back against core EU values. At this stage we are still in the process of transitioning to a new equilibrium. Developments in core Europe and the newer EU states will determine the end point. 

Gillian Edgeworth is a sovereign analyst for Wellington Management. Prior, she worked as Chief European Emerging Market Economist at Unicredit Bank, responsible for economic analysis of regional economies and developments in Ireland and Greece, and at Deutsche Bank, responsible for coverage of Greece, Ireland, and the newer EU states. Ms. Edgeworth is also an associate of the Political Economy of Financial Markets (PEFM) programme at St Antony’s College, University of Oxford.