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More than a year after Russia’s unprovoked and illegal full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Ukrainians remain committed to Ukrainian victory and optimistic about the country’s future despite significant hardships. According to NDI polling, 89 percent of Ukrainians report being optimistic about Ukraine’s future. Ukrainians remain resolute and united, and it is clear that Russia’s strategy to divide the country, undermine its resilience, and erode its Western ties has proven a failure. The findings of NDI’s four rounds of wartime polling clearly demonstrate Ukrainians’ faith in their victory and resolve in the face of immense hardship remains strong as Russia’s war, and targeting of civilians and civilian infrastructure continues.  Furthemore, the "Ukraine Scenarios 2040", a joint project between the Ukrainian Parliament's Inter-factional Union “Strategic Foresight for Ukraine” and the UK Parliament’s All-Party Parliamentary Group for Future Generations, explores a number of key critical uncertainties involving the rebuilding and reconstruction of Ukraine, including: What might happen if Western countries are not able to continue providing Ukraine with the needed military support? What are the best ways to protect Ukrainian democracy and tackle corruption?

Caroline Baylon co-runs the Secretariat of the All-Party Parliamentary Group for Future Generations in the UK Parliament and is a research affiliate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risks at the University of Cambridge. She serves as an expert and rapporteur of the Ad-Hoc Working Group on Foresight for Emerging and Future Cybersecurity Challenges at the European Union Agency for Cybersecurity (ENISA) and as an expert on innovation and foresight to Interpol. Caroline is also a course facilitator for the Oxford Scenarios Programme at the University of Oxford, an affiliate at the Stanford Existential Risks Initiative at Stanford University.countries are not able to continue providing Ukraine with the needed military support?  What are the best ways to protect Ukrainian democracy and tackle corruption?  

Marcin Walecki is the Senior Resident Country Director for the National Democratic Institute (NDI) in Ukraine. He returned to NDI in 2022 with more than 25 years of democracy assistance and governance experience working in roughly 50 countries around the world. Prior to rejoining the Ukraine team, Mr. Walecki served as the executive director of the EUROPAEUM, as well as the Head of the Democratization Department with OSCE/ODIHR. He also worked at the European Partnership for Democracy (EPD) as the Executive Director, as a Senior Advisor for political finance for the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES). Marcin holds a D.Phil. from Oxford University and is a former Visiting Fellow and Senior Associate Member of St. Antony’s College Oxford.

Image by NDI