Rapid change sums up the Arctic of today, with significant implications for branding Canada.  Climate change produces a level of interest in the region from a widening range of actors and confronts Canada with new challenges.  The present study uses a forecasting model to assess the likely outcomes, under current conditions, across a range of substantively important issues in the Arctic.  The work unfolds in four further stages.  First, a forecasting model is introduced and linked to the present context.  The second stage presents the expert-generated data used to forecast the future.  Third, forecasts are produced and assessed in terms of implications for existing policy in areas ranging from search and rescue to transit of the Northwest Passage.  The fourth and final stage offers conclusions about the Canadian brand and suggests directions for future research.

Professor Patrick James is Professor of International Relations and Director of the Center for International Studies at the University of Southern California (PhD, University of Maryland, College Park). James specializes in comparative and international politics. His interests at the international level include the causes, processes and consequences of conflict, crisis and war. With regard to domestic politics, his interests focus on Canada, most notably with respect to the constitutional dilemma.

In 2004 Professor James received the Gold Chalk Award for graduate mentorship in the Social Sciences from the University of Missouri-Columbia Graduate Professional Council. He is the author of 17 books and over one hundred articles and book chapters. Among his honors and awards are the Louise Dyer Peace Fellowship from the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, the Milton R. Merrill Chair from Political Science at Utah State University, the Lady Davis Professorship of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, the Thomas Enders Professorship in Canadian Studies at the University of Calgary, the Senior Scholar award from the Canadian Embassy, Washington, DC the Eaton Lectureship at Queen's University in Belfast, the Distinguished Scholar in Foreign Policy Analysis from the International Studies Association (ISA), the Misty Gerner Award for Innovative Teaching from the ISA, and the Distinguished Scholar in Ethnicity, Nationalism and Migration from the ISA. He is a past president of the Midwest International Studies Association and the Iowa Conference of Political Scientists. From 1999 to 2003 he served as Editor of International Studies Quarterly.