Brexit and its impact on the Western Balkans
The decision of the UK to leave the European Union is likely to have important ramifications for the Western Balkans (WB). Although direct economic linkages between the UK and the WB countries are limited, the indirect impact via the EU – the main trading and investment partner for the WB – could be substantial. A UK exit may also slow down the EU accession process and the reform drive in the region. This talk will explore some of these linkages and will outline the effect of different scenarios, with the aid of a recently developed EBRD global modelling framework.
Peter Sanfey is Associate Director, Deputy Director for Economics, Policy and Governance within the Department of Country and Sector Economics at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Prior to joining the EBRD he was a lecturer in economics at the University of Kent at Canterbury. He is currently a Senior Common Room Member of St Antony’s College, University of Oxford, and an associate of SEESOX (South East European Studies at Oxford). He has published widely in international refereed journals, mostly on transition economics, macroeconomics and labour economics, and he is the co-author of a new (2015) book on the economic and policy foundations for growth in south-eastern Europe. Research interests include, transition economics; macroeconomics; informal labour markets; subjective measures of well-being.
In association with PEFM.