Energy

The Eastern Mediterranean has emerged as a critical region in global energy geopolitics, largely due to the discovery of substantial natural gas reserves in the Levant Basin and the surrounding offshore areas of Israel, Cyprus, Egypt, and potentially Lebanon. These discoveries have transformed the energy dynamics of the region, offering both opportunities and challenges related to energy security, regional cooperation, and geopolitical competition. Here’s a detailed look at how energy shapes the Eastern Mediterranean:

1. Natural Gas Discoveries

• Levant Basin: The Levant Basin, located offshore in the Eastern Mediterranean, holds significant natural gas reserves. Some of the major discoveries include:
  • Tamar and Leviathan (Israel): Discovered in 2009 and 2010 respectively, these fields have substantial gas reserves, making Israel an energy exporter.
  • Aphrodite (Cyprus): Discovered in 2011, the Aphrodite gas field has positioned Cyprus as a potential energy player in the region.
  • Zohr (Egypt): Discovered in 2015, the Zohr gas field is one of the largest in the Mediterranean and has played a crucial role in turning Egypt into a regional energy hub.
• Other Prospects: Lebanon and Syria also have potential offshore gas reserves, though political instability and unresolved maritime boundaries have hindered exploration efforts.

2. Energy Cooperation and the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF)

• Formation of the EMGF: In 2019, key Eastern Mediterranean countries formed the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF) to promote energy cooperation, facilitate the development of gas infrastructure, and establish a regional gas market. The founding members include Greece, Cyprus, Israel, Egypt, Italy, Jordan, and the Palestinian Authority. France joined later, and the United States and the EU support the forum as observers.
  • The EMGF promotes energy collaboration among these countries, coordinating on production, transportation, and export of natural gas.
  • It also aims to develop pipelines and liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities to supply gas to Europe, offering the EU an alternative to Russian energy imports.
• Exclusion of Turkey: Notably, Turkey is excluded from the EMGF due to its disputes with Cyprus and Greece over maritime boundaries and gas exploration rights. This exclusion underscores the regional tensions and geopolitical rivalries that complicate energy cooperation.

3. Geopolitical Tensions Over Maritime Boundaries

• Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs): Much of the geopolitical tension in the Eastern Mediterranean centers on competing claims over Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs), which define the areas where countries have the rights to exploit marine resources, including gas deposits.
  • Turkey vs. Greece/Cyprus: Turkey disputes the maritime boundaries of Cyprus and Greece, particularly in relation to the division of EEZs around Cyprus and the Greek islands. Turkey has carried out exploratory drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus, leading to sharp tensions between Turkey, Greece, and Cyprus, as well as EU condemnation of Turkey’s actions.
  • Libya-Turkey Agreement: In 2019, Turkey signed a maritime delimitation agreement with the Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA), extending Turkey’s claims in the Mediterranean. This move was rejected by Greece, Cyprus, and Egypt as violating international maritime law and further strained regional relations.

4. Energy as a Driver of Cooperation

• Greece-Cyprus-Israel-Egypt Alliance: The growing energy partnerships among Greece, Cyprus, Israel, and Egypt are reshaping the geopolitical landscape. These countries are working closely together to develop gas infrastructure and promote joint energy projects. Their cooperation extends beyond energy to include defense and security coordination in response to Turkish activities in the region.
• EastMed Pipeline: One of the most ambitious energy projects in the region is the EastMed Pipeline, a proposed pipeline that would transport natural gas from the Leviathan and Aphrodite gas fields to Cyprus, Greece, and eventually Italy. The pipeline is seen as a way to diversify Europe’s energy sources and reduce dependence on Russian gas.
  • The EU has supported the project as part of its strategy to secure alternative energy supplies, but the high costs and technical challenges have slowed its progress.
• Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG): Egypt is positioning itself as a regional LNG hub. Egypt’s Idku and Damietta LNG terminals export gas to Europe and Asia, providing a flexible alternative to pipelines. This enhances Egypt’s regional influence and strengthens its ties with European energy markets.

5. Europe’s Energy Security

• Alternative to Russian Gas: The Eastern Mediterranean gas discoveries are important for Europe as the EU seeks to diversify its energy supplies and reduce its reliance on Russia, particularly in light of geopolitical tensions between the EU and Russia. The EU is keen on supporting infrastructure projects that can connect Eastern Mediterranean gas to Europe, whether via pipelines or LNG facilities.
• European Investment: The European Union has provided financial and political backing for energy projects in the Eastern Mediterranean. For instance, the EastMed Pipeline is part of the EU’s strategy to create a more integrated and secure energy market. Europe also supports renewable energy projects in the region, which could be crucial in the long term as the global energy transition progresses.

6. Turkey’s Role and Energy Aspirations

• Turkey’s Energy Strategy: Turkey, strategically located between Europe and Asia, is a key energy transit country, hosting several pipelines that transport gas from the Caspian Sea and Russia to Europe. However, Turkey’s exclusion from the Eastern Mediterranean energy partnerships has pushed it to adopt a more assertive stance, including conducting its own gas exploration in disputed waters.
• Blue Homeland Doctrine: Turkey’s assertiveness in the Eastern Mediterranean is part of its broader “Blue Homeland” doctrine, which emphasizes Turkey’s maritime rights and aims to expand its influence in the region’s waters. This doctrine has heightened tensions with Greece and Cyprus, as Turkey seeks a share of the Eastern Mediterranean’s energy wealth.

7. The Role of External Powers

• United States: The U.S. supports regional energy cooperation through the 3+1 framework (Greece, Cyprus, Israel, and the U.S.) and has promoted energy partnerships that counterbalance Turkey’s influence. The U.S. sees energy cooperation in the Eastern Mediterranean as a way to promote stability and secure alternative energy routes for Europe.
• Russia: Russia is a significant player in the region’s energy politics. While it seeks to maintain its dominance in Europe’s gas market, Russia has also expressed interest in Eastern Mediterranean gas. It maintains a military presence in Syria and is wary of any energy projects that could undercut its influence over Europe’s energy supplies.
• China: China is increasingly involved in the region through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), particularly by investing in critical infrastructure, including ports like Piraeus in Greece. While China is not directly involved in energy production, its investments in the region’s infrastructure make it a key economic player.

8. Environmental Concerns and the Energy Transition

• Climate Change and Sustainability: As global efforts to address climate change increase, there is growing attention to the environmental impact of gas exploration and energy production in the Eastern Mediterranean. While natural gas is considered cleaner than coal or oil, it is still a fossil fuel, and questions about long-term sustainability are becoming more prominent.
• Renewable Energy Potential: The Eastern Mediterranean also has significant potential for renewable energy, particularly solar and wind power. Countries like Greece and Cyprus are investing in renewable energy infrastructure, and this shift could complement the region’s gas industry as part of a broader energy transition.

Conclusion

The Eastern Mediterranean is becoming a pivotal region in the global energy landscape due to its natural gas reserves and its strategic location at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and Africa. Energy is driving both cooperation and geopolitical competition among regional actors, with alliances like the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF) promoting collaboration while disputes over maritime boundaries, particularly involving Turkey, fuel tensions.

The region’s gas reserves offer Europe an alternative energy source, which is crucial for European energy security and for reducing dependence on Russian gas. However, the energy dynamics in the region are complicated by competing claims, geopolitical rivalries, and the involvement of external powers like the United States, Russia, and China. As global attention shifts towards cleaner energy sources, the future of the Eastern Mediterranean’s energy sector will also depend on its ability to balance fossil fuel production with environmental sustainability and the development of renewable energy alternatives.