Geopolitics and great power competition

The Eastern Mediterranean has become a focal point for geopolitical rivalry and great power competition in recent years due to a combination of strategic factors, including energy resources, maritime disputes, military positioning, and regional instability. Several major powers, including the United States, Russia, the European Union, and China, are engaged in the region, each pursuing their own interests while responding to the actions of regional players like Turkey, Greece, Israel, Egypt, and others. This competitive landscape is further complicated by long-standing conflicts, such as those between Greece and Turkey, and newer tensions around energy exploration.

1. Key Drivers of Geopolitical Competition:

a. Energy Resources:

• The discovery of significant natural gas reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean, including Israel’s Leviathan and Tamar fields, Egypt’s Zohr field, and Cyprus’s Aphrodite field, has intensified competition over control of maritime zones and access to resources. These energy reserves have the potential to shift regional power dynamics, enhance energy security for Europe, and increase the economic clout of resource-rich states.
• Energy exploration and drilling have led to disputes over Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs), particularly between Turkey, Greece, and Cyprus. Turkey’s challenge to the EEZs claimed by Cyprus and Greece has prompted responses from other regional players, and the rivalry over gas resources has spilled over into broader geopolitical alignments.

b. Maritime and Territorial Disputes:

• The Eastern Mediterranean is marked by overlapping maritime claims, with Turkey, Greece, and Cyprus at the heart of the disputes. Turkey contests Greece’s claims in the Aegean Sea and does not recognize the Republic of Cyprus’s maritime boundaries, insisting that Northern Cyprus (the self-declared Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus) also has rights to these waters.
• These disputes have led to heightened tensions, including naval standoffs, the deployment of exploration ships, and military exercises, increasing the risk of confrontation between NATO allies Greece and Turkey. The rivalry is not only about territorial control but also access to the rich energy resources under the seabed.

c. Strategic Geography:

• The Eastern Mediterranean sits at the crossroads of Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, making it a critical region for global trade routes, particularly through the Suez Canal. Control of these waterways has long been of interest to great powers seeking to secure trade and military routes between continents.
• The region also offers military access to both the Black Sea and the Middle East, and it is a staging ground for influence in surrounding conflict zones, including Libya and Syria. This has made the Eastern Mediterranean a strategic area for the projection of naval and air power by both regional and external powers.

2. Great Power Involvement:

a. United States:

• The U.S. has historically maintained a significant presence in the Eastern Mediterranean as part of its broader Middle East strategy, and its interests are rooted in securing energy routes, ensuring the security of Israel, and maintaining NATO’s cohesion.
• In recent years, U.S.-Turkey relations have been strained by several factors, including Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 missile system, the Syrian conflict, and Turkey’s growing assertiveness in the Eastern Mediterranean. As a result, the U.S. has enhanced its ties with Greece and Cyprus, backing their claims in maritime disputes with Turkey and supporting regional energy projects like the EastMed pipeline.
• The U.S. also maintains a strong military presence through naval bases in the region, such as Souda Bay in Crete, and the US Sixth Fleet regularly operates in the Mediterranean. The U.S. supports initiatives that enhance stability and energy security in the region while opposing actions by Russia and Turkey that could undermine NATO or regional allies.

b. Russia:

• Russia has become an increasingly influential player in the Eastern Mediterranean, particularly through its military intervention in Syria, where it supports the Assad regime. Russia’s military bases in Tartus and Hmeimim have cemented its foothold in the region, providing Moscow with crucial naval access to the Mediterranean Sea.
• Energy is another arena where Russia is keen to maintain influence. Russian energy giant Gazprom has interests in Mediterranean gas fields, and Russia views efforts by the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF) to develop alternative gas supplies to Europe as a threat to its dominance over European gas markets. Russia has sought to balance its relationships with countries in the region, including Turkey, Israel, and Egypt, as part of its broader geopolitical strategy.
• By leveraging its military and diplomatic presence, Russia positions itself as a power broker in regional conflicts, from Syria to Libya, and aims to counter U.S. influence in the Mediterranean and the Middle East.

c. European Union:

• The EU’s primary concerns in the Eastern Mediterranean revolve around energy security, migration, and the rule of law. As part of its energy diversification strategy, the EU is keen on reducing reliance on Russian gas and sees the Eastern Mediterranean as a potential source of alternative energy supplies. This has led the EU to back projects like the EastMed pipeline, which would link Israeli and Cypriot gas to Europe via Greece.
• However, the EU’s position is complicated by internal divisions and its dependence on Turkey to manage migration flows, particularly in the aftermath of the 2015 refugee crisis. Despite tensions with Turkey over its drilling activities and maritime claims, the EU has to balance sanctions with maintaining cooperation on migration and regional security.
• France, in particular, has taken a more assertive stance in the region, deploying naval forces to support Greece and Cyprus in their disputes with Turkey, and increasing its involvement in regional military exercises. France’s stance aligns with its broader Mediterranean strategy, which seeks to assert French influence in the region while countering Turkish and Russian activities.

d. China:

• China’s role in the Eastern Mediterranean is primarily economic, though its investments in strategic infrastructure through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) have geopolitical implications. China has acquired significant stakes in key ports, such as the Port of Piraeus in Greece, which serves as a major gateway for Chinese goods entering Europe.
• While China is not directly involved in the region’s energy or territorial disputes, its economic activities are part of its broader strategy to secure maritime routes, build infrastructure, and expand influence in Europe and the Mediterranean.
• China’s investments have also raised concerns among the EU and the U.S. about Beijing’s growing influence in the region and its potential leverage over critical infrastructure that could be used in times of geopolitical tension.

3. Regional Powers and Their Influence:

a. Turkey:

• Turkey has pursued an increasingly assertive foreign policy under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, epitomized by its “Blue Homeland” doctrine, which seeks to expand Turkish maritime claims in the Aegean and Mediterranean Seas. Turkey’s aggressive stance on maritime boundaries, coupled with its energy exploration activities in disputed waters, has heightened tensions with Greece and Cyprus.
• Turkey’s intervention in Libya, where it supports the Government of National Accord (GNA), further reflects its regional ambitions. The maritime agreement Turkey signed with Libya in 2019 extended Turkey’s claims over large portions of the Eastern Mediterranean, which Greece and Egypt reject.
• Militarily, Turkey has increased its naval presence in the region and conducted exercises to assert its claims, drawing both condemnation and concern from its NATO allies. Ankara is also using its strategic control over refugee flows to Europe as leverage in its relations with the EU.

b. Israel:

• Israel has emerged as a major energy player in the Eastern Mediterranean, thanks to its significant offshore gas fields. It has built partnerships with Cyprus, Greece, and Egypt to export its gas to Europe, further strengthening its geopolitical standing.
• Israel’s cooperation with Greece and Cyprus extends beyond energy, encompassing military exercises and intelligence sharing. This trilateral alliance has grown partly in response to Turkey’s aggressive policies in the region.
• Although Israel maintains a working relationship with Turkey, particularly regarding trade and security, it views Turkey’s maritime claims and actions in the Mediterranean with increasing wariness.

c. Egypt:

• Egypt’s discovery of the Zohr gas field has bolstered its ambitions to become an energy hub for the region. As the host of the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF), Egypt has positioned itself as a leader in promoting regional energy cooperation.
• Egypt’s strategic interests align with Greece, Cyprus, and Israel in countering Turkey’s maritime and energy ambitions. Egypt’s military is one of the strongest in the region, and it regularly participates in joint naval exercises with its regional partners.
• In Libya, Egypt supports General Haftar’s forces against Turkey-backed GNA forces, adding another layer of complexity to the geopolitical rivalry with Turkey in the region.

4. Implications of Great Power Competition:

a. Energy Security and Competition:

• The competition over gas resources and pipelines in the Eastern Mediterranean has significant implications for European energy security, as the region offers an alternative to Russian energy supplies. The development of gas fields and infrastructure could also transform the region into a major energy hub.
• However, unresolved maritime disputes, particularly involving Turkey, could hinder energy cooperation and development. Tensions between regional powers over territorial claims may also lead to further militarization of the region, with potential risks of conflict.

b. NATO Tensions:

• The rivalry between NATO allies Turkey and Greece presents a significant challenge for the alliance. The increasing likelihood of clashes between the two could weaken NATO’s cohesion and create openings for external powers like Russia to exploit divisions within the alliance.
• NATO has struggled to mediate between Greece and Turkey, and Turkey’s growing estrangement from the West, exemplified by its military cooperation with Russia, adds to the alliance’s strategic dilemmas in the Eastern Mediterranean.

c. Multi polarity in the Mediterranean:

This competition could lead to greater instability if rival powers continue to back opposing sides in conflicts like those in Libya and Syria, or if maritime disputes escalate into open conflict.

The Eastern Mediterranean is becoming a more multi-polar region, with a range of powers, both regional and global, vying for influence. The U.S., Russia, the EU, and China are all pursuing different strategies in response to the region’s emerging energy landscape, unresolved conflicts, and shifting alliances.

Conclusion:
The Eastern Mediterranean has become a key theater for great power competition, driven by energy discoveries, strategic geography, and unresolved territorial disputes. Major powers like the U.S., Russia, the EU, and China are increasingly involved in the region, each pursuing distinct but sometimes overlapping interests. The role of regional actors such as Turkey, Greece, Egypt, and Israel is also pivotal, as they navigate complex alliances and rivalries. As the region’s importance grows, the potential for conflict remains high, and the actions of these powers will shape the region’s future stability and geopolitical order.

The Eastern Mediterranean is becoming a more multi-polar region, with a range of powers, both regional and global, vying for influence. The U.S., Russia, the EU, and China are all pursuing different strategies in response to the region’s emerging energy landscape, unresolved conflicts, and shifting alliances.