Migration

Migration in the Eastern Mediterranean: Challenges and geopolitical implications

The Eastern Mediterranean has become a critical zone in the global migration crisis, serving as a key transit point for migrants and refugees moving from conflict-ridden and economically unstable regions in the Middle East, North Africa, and Asia towards Europe. The convergence of multiple factors, including regional conflicts, economic disparities, climate change, and political instability, has made the Eastern Mediterranean a focal point for migration flows. This dynamic has not only created significant humanitarian challenges but also reshaped the region’s geopolitical landscape, influencing policies, alliances, and international relations.

1. Key Drivers of Migration in the Eastern Mediterranean

a. Conflicts and Political Instability:

• Ongoing conflicts in Syria, Libya, and Afghanistan have driven millions of people to seek safety outside their home countries. The Syrian civil war, in particular, has led to one of the largest refugee crises in modern history, with Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, and Greece receiving large numbers of displaced persons.
• Political instability and economic hardship in North Africa and the Horn of Africa have also contributed to migration flows. Migrants from Libya, Egypt, and Sudan are using the Mediterranean as a route to escape poverty and violence.

b. Economic Disparities:

• Many migrants are driven by a desire for better economic opportunities. Countries in the Eastern Mediterranean, especially Greece, Cyprus, and Italy, are seen as entry points into the European Union, where migrants hope to find work and improve their living conditions.
• Economic migrants from Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia join refugees in these routes, often relying on dangerous sea crossings and smugglers to reach European shores.

c. Climate Change and Environmental Stress:

• Climate change is emerging as a significant factor in migration from the Eastern Mediterranean and surrounding regions. Droughts, desertification, and water scarcity are displacing populations, particularly in Syria, Jordan, and North Africa. The agricultural sector is being hit hard by rising temperatures and changing weather patterns, pushing rural populations toward cities or out of the region entirely.
• Sea level rise threatens coastal communities in places like Egypt’s Nile Delta, potentially creating future waves of climate refugees.

2. Migration Routes and Patterns

a. Eastern Mediterranean Sea Route:

• The Eastern Mediterranean Sea route is one of the most dangerous paths for migrants attempting to reach Europe. It primarily connects Turkey and the nearby Greek islands, such as Lesbos, Chios, and Samos, but also sees crossings toward Italy and Cyprus.
• The Turkey-Greece corridor has seen some of the highest volumes of migrant activity, particularly during the peak of the Syrian refugee crisis. Despite European Union efforts to curb irregular migration, the route remains active, with migrants crossing the Aegean Sea in overcrowded and unsafe boats, often facilitated by human smugglers.

b. Land Routes through Turkey:

• Turkey is a crucial transit country for migrants moving from the Middle East, Central Asia, and South Asia toward Europe. Migrants travel overland through Iran, Iraq, and Afghanistan into Turkey, where they attempt to cross into Europe via Greece and Bulgaria.
• The Turkey-EU migration deal of 2016, under which Turkey agreed to take back migrants intercepted at sea in exchange for financial aid and other concessions, temporarily slowed migration but has not fully stemmed the flow of people through this route.

c. Cyprus as a New Destination:

• In recent years, the island of Cyprus has emerged as an alternative destination for migrants due to its proximity to the Middle East and Africa. Although the numbers are smaller than those arriving in Greece, Cyprus faces growing pressure to manage asylum seekers, leading to calls for EU assistance.

3. Geopolitical Implications of Migration

a. Turkey’s Role as a Migration Gatekeeper:

• Turkey plays a pivotal role in managing migration flows into Europe. Its geographic position makes it a critical gatekeeper, and it has used this status as leverage in negotiations with the European Union. The 2016 EU-Turkey deal remains a cornerstone of the EU’s strategy to control migration, but tensions have periodically flared, with Turkey threatening to “open the gates” and allow migrants to pass into Europe when relations with the EU sour.
• The refugee burden in Turkey is significant, with the country hosting nearly 4 million refugees, mostly from Syria. This has led to domestic political tensions as the Turkish government struggles to balance international obligations with local discontent over the economic and social pressures created by the large refugee population.

b. EU Migration Policy and Border Security:

• The European Union has been forced to re-evaluate its migration and border security policies due to the influx of migrants through the Eastern Mediterranean. Greece, as a front line state, has received substantial EU financial and logistical support to manage its borders, but this has not always been sufficient to deal with large-scale arrivals.
• The EU has ramped up efforts to secure its external borders through initiatives like Frontex, the European Border and Coast Guard Agency, and has focused on strengthening cooperation with Turkey, North African countries, and Balkan states to contain migration further from its shores.
• At the same time, tensions within the EU over burden-sharing, asylum policies, and migrant redistribution have created internal divisions, with frontline states like Greece and Italy feeling overburdened while others resist accepting quotas of asylum seekers.

c. Humanitarian and Legal Challenges:

• The migration crisis has led to significant humanitarian challenges. Migrants face perilous journeys, and thousands have died attempting to cross the Mediterranean Sea. Those who survive are often held in overcrowded and under-resourced refugee camps, particularly on the Greek islands, where living conditions are harsh, and access to health services, education, and legal protection is limited.
• Human rights organizations have raised concerns about the treatment of migrants in detention centers and the legality of some European border policies, including pushbacks at sea. The challenge of processing large numbers of asylum applications in a timely manner also puts pressure on national systems, further complicating the situation.

d. Regional Diplomacy and Cooperation:

• Migration has reshaped diplomatic relations in the Eastern Mediterranean. Countries like Greece and Cyprus have sought closer ties with other EU members to manage the migration flow, while Turkey uses its control over migration routes as a bargaining chip in broader geopolitical negotiations.
• There are also efforts to engage in regional cooperation through platforms like the Union for the Mediterranean and other multilateral bodies aimed at addressing the root causes of migration, such as economic development and conflict resolution in source countries.

4. The Future of Migration in the Eastern Mediterranean

a. Climate Change as a Long-Term Driver:

• Climate change is expected to exacerbate migration flows in the Eastern Mediterranean in the coming decades. Rising temperatures, water scarcity, and sea level rise will likely lead to more climate refugees, especially from North Africa and the Levant. Proactive regional planning and international cooperation will be essential to address these emerging challenges.

b. Shifting Migration Patterns:

• While current migration routes remain active, patterns may shift in response to political developments, border policies, and changes in regional stability. Increased migration from Afghanistan following the Taliban takeover, for example, may put new pressure on the region, while instability in Libya continues to influence migration across the Central Mediterranean.

c. The Need for Comprehensive Solutions:

• Addressing migration in the Eastern Mediterranean requires comprehensive solutions that go beyond border security. These must include conflict resolution in key source countries, economic development programs to reduce push factors, and climate adaptation strategies to mitigate the impact of environmental changes.
• A balance between security and humanitarian concerns will be critical for long-term stability in the region. Developing more effective asylum policies, strengthening legal migration pathways, and ensuring human rights protection will be key components of a sustainable migration strategy.

Conclusion:

Migration in the Eastern Mediterranean is a complex and multifaceted issue, driven by a combination of conflict, economic hardship, and climate change. It has far-reaching humanitarian and geopolitical implications, affecting relations between regional actors, the EU, and countries of origin. While policies have been put in place to manage migration, addressing the root causes and preparing for the future challenges of climate-induced migration will require deeper cooperation and long-term strategies.